• Wetland Changes:  Permafrost thawing will cause lakes and wetlands to drain in some areas, while creating new wetlands in other places. The balance of these changes is not known, but as freshwater habitats are thus modified, major species shifts are likely.

• Northward Species Shifts:  The ranges of many plant and animal species are projected to shift northward, resulting in an increased number of species in the Arctic. Some currently widespread arctic species are likely to suffer major declines.

• Vegetation Shifts:  Vegetation zones are projected to shift northward, with forests encroaching on tundra, and tundra encroaching on polar deserts. Limitations in amount and quality of soils are likely to slow this transition in some areas.

• Marine Species at Risk:  Marine species dependent on sea ice, including polar bears, ice-living seals, walrus, and some marine birds, are very likely to decline, with some species facing extinction.

• Increasing Fires and Insects:  Forest fires, insect infestations, and other disturbances are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Such events can subject habitats to invasion by non-native species.

• Land Species at Risk:  Species quite specifically adapted to the arctic climate are especially at risk including many species of mosses and lichens, lemmings, voles, arctic fox, and snowy owl.

• UV Impacts:  Increased ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth’s surface as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion and the reduction in spring snow and ice cover will impact ecosystems on land and in water.

• Old-Growth Forest Loss:  Old-growth forest is rich in species of lichens, mosses, fungi, insects, woodpeckers, and birds that nest in tree cavities. Climate warming would increase forest fires and insect-caused tree death, further reducing this valuable habitat which is already declining due to other human activities.

• Carbon Cycle Changes:  Over time, replacement of arctic vegetation with more productive vegetation from the south is likely to increase carbon dioxide uptake. On the other hand, methane emissions, mainly from warming wetlands and thawing permafrost, are likely to increase.

• Impacts on Society:  The changes in climate and natural systems highlighted on the previous pages are projected to lead to numerous impacts on society throughout the Arctic.

• Loss of Hunting Culture:  For Inuit, warming is likely to disrupt or even destroy their hunting and foodsharing culture as reduced sea ice causes the animals on which they depend to decline, become less accessible, and possibly become extinct.

• Declining Food Security:  Access to traditional foods including seal, polar bear, caribou, and some fish and bird species is likely to be seriously impaired by climate warming. Reduced quality of food sources, such as diseased fish and dried up berries, are already being observed in some locations. Shifting to a more Western diet carries risks of increased diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular diseases.

• Human Health Concerns:  Human health concerns also include increased accident rates due to environmental changes such as sea ice thinning, and health problems caused by adverse impacts on sanitation infrastructure due to thawing permafrost.

• Wildlife Herd Impacts:  Caribou and reindeer herds will face a variety of climate-related changes in their migration routes, calving grounds, and forage availability as snow and river ice conditions change, thus affecting the people who depend on hunting and herding them.

• Expanding Marine Shipping:  Shipping through key marine routes, including the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage, is likely to increase. The summer navigation season is projected to lengthen considerably as the century progresses, due to the decline of sea ice. Expansion of tourism and marine transport of goods are likely outcomes.

• Increasing Access to Resources:  Marine access to some arctic resources, including offshore oil and gas and some minerals, is likely to be enhanced by the reduction in sea ice, bringing new opportunities as well as environmental concerns. Increased ice movement could initially make some operations more difficult.

• Enhanced Marine Fisheries:  Some major arctic marine fisheries, including those for herring and cod, are likely to become more productive as climate warms. Ranges and migration patterns of many fish species are very likely to change.

• Disrupted Transport on Land:  Transportation routes and pipelines on land are already being disturbed in some places by thawing ground, and this problem is likely to expand. Oil and gas extraction and forestry will be increasingly disrupted by the shrinking of the period during which ice roads and tundra are sufficiently frozen to allow industrial operations. Northern communities that rely on frozen roadways to truck in supplies are also being affected.

• Decline in Northern Freshwater Fisheries:  Decreased abundance and local and global extinctions of arctic-adapted fish species are projected for this century. Arctic char, broad whitefish, and Arctic cisco, which are major contributors to the diets of local people, are among the species threatened by a warming climate.

• Enhanced Agriculture and Forestry:  Agricultural and forestry opportunities are likely to increase as potential areas for food and wood production expand northward due to a longer and warmer growing season and increasing precipitation.

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• Wetland Changes:  Permafrost thawing will cause lakes and wetlands to drain in some areas, while creating new wetlands in other places. The balance of these changes is not known, but as freshwater habitats are thus modified, major species shifts are likely.

• Northward Species Shifts:  The ranges of many plant and animal species are projected to shift northward, resulting in an increased number of species in the Arctic. Some currently widespread arctic species are likely to suffer major declines.

• Vegetation Shifts:  Vegetation zones are projected to shift northward, with forests encroaching on tundra, and tundra encroaching on polar deserts. Limitations in amount and quality of soils are likely to slow this transition in some areas.

• Marine Species at Risk:  Marine species dependent on sea ice, including polar bears, ice-living seals, walrus, and some marine birds, are very likely to decline, with some species facing extinction.

• Increasing Fires and Insects:  Forest fires, insect infestations, and other disturbances are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Such events can subject habitats to invasion by non-native species.

• Land Species at Risk:  Species quite specifically adapted to the arctic climate are especially at risk including many species of mosses and lichens, lemmings, voles, arctic fox, and snowy owl.

• UV Impacts:  Increased ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth’s surface as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion and the reduction in spring snow and ice cover will impact ecosystems on land and in water.

• Old-Growth Forest Loss:  Old-growth forest is rich in species of lichens, mosses, fungi, insects, woodpeckers, and birds that nest in tree cavities. Climate warming would increase forest fires and insect-caused tree death, further reducing this valuable habitat which is already declining due to other human activities.

• Carbon Cycle Changes:  Over time, replacement of arctic vegetation with more productive vegetation from the south is likely to increase carbon dioxide uptake. On the other hand, methane emissions, mainly from warming wetlands and thawing permafrost, are likely to increase.

• Impacts on Society:  The changes in climate and natural systems highlighted on the previous pages are projected to lead to numerous impacts on society throughout the Arctic.

• Loss of Hunting Culture:  For Inuit, warming is likely to disrupt or even destroy their hunting and foodsharing culture as reduced sea ice causes the animals on which they depend to decline, become less accessible, and possibly become extinct.

• Declining Food Security:  Access to traditional foods including seal, polar bear, caribou, and some fish and bird species is likely to be seriously impaired by climate warming. Reduced quality of food sources, such as diseased fish and dried up berries, are already being observed in some locations. Shifting to a more Western diet carries risks of increased diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular diseases.

• Human Health Concerns:  Human health concerns also include increased accident rates due to environmental changes such as sea ice thinning, and health problems caused by adverse impacts on sanitation infrastructure due to thawing permafrost.

• Wildlife Herd Impacts:  Caribou and reindeer herds will face a variety of climate-related changes in their migration routes, calving grounds, and forage availability as snow and river ice conditions change, thus affecting the people who depend on hunting and herding them.

• Expanding Marine Shipping:  Shipping through key marine routes, including the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage, is likely to increase. The summer navigation season is projected to lengthen considerably as the century progresses, due to the decline of sea ice. Expansion of tourism and marine transport of goods are likely outcomes.

• Increasing Access to Resources:  Marine access to some arctic resources, including offshore oil and gas and some minerals, is likely to be enhanced by the reduction in sea ice, bringing new opportunities as well as environmental concerns. Increased ice movement could initially make some operations more difficult.

• Enhanced Marine Fisheries:  Some major arctic marine fisheries, including those for herring and cod, are likely to become more productive as climate warms. Ranges and migration patterns of many fish species are very likely to change.

• Disrupted Transport on Land:  Transportation routes and pipelines on land are already being disturbed in some places by thawing ground, and this problem is likely to expand. Oil and gas extraction and forestry will be increasingly disrupted by the shrinking of the period during which ice roads and tundra are sufficiently frozen to allow industrial operations. Northern communities that rely on frozen roadways to truck in supplies are also being affected.

• Decline in Northern Freshwater Fisheries:  Decreased abundance and local and global extinctions of arctic-adapted fish species are projected for this century. Arctic char, broad whitefish, and Arctic cisco, which are major contributors to the diets of local people, are among the species threatened by a warming climate.

• Enhanced Agriculture and Forestry:  Agricultural and forestry opportunities are likely to increase as potential areas for food and wood production expand northward due to a longer and warmer growing season and increasing precipitation.

Are you absolutely sure you want to delete this article? This process cannot be undone and is permanent.

Yes, Delete This Article

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Yes, Remove This Article