World demand for oil and gas will outstrip supply within seven years, according to Royal Dutch Shell.

The oil multinational is predicting that conventional supplies will not keep pace with soaring population growth and the rapid pace of economic development.

Jeroen van der Veer, Shell’s chief executive, said in an e-mail to the company’s staff this week that output of conventional oil and gas was close to peaking. He wrote: “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”

The boss of the world’s second-largest oil company forecast that, regardless of government policy initiatives and investment in renewables, the world would need more nuclear power and unconventional fossil fuels, such as oil sands.

“Using more energy inevitably means emitting more CO2 at a time when climate change has become a critical global issue,” he wrote.

Mr van der Veer is expected to discuss Shell’s energy outlook today at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
(25 January 2008)
Interview with van der Veer by New York Times.
Shell deserves credit for wanting to be part of the climate change solution (The Scotsman)
The letter sent to Shell employees (TOD)
Excerpts and comments by Big Gav

In a related comment made by Matthew Simmons in an interview by Mimi Swartz in the Texas Monthly, he said, "I don't see why people are so worried about global warming destroying the planet - peak oil will take care of that."

ECLA PA Ed.: It is clearly time to get very serious about mitigation and adaptation strategies, especially ones like "Blueprints" developed by Shell researchers. A copy of the full text of the original Shell email sent by Jeroen van der Veer to all staff employees and explicitly meant for wider distribution can be found at: www.theoildrum.com/node/3548. This is a "must read" document.

Shell chief fears oil shortage in seven years