PEAK OIL AND UTAH

The Salt Lake Valley is mostly filled with urban development, holding several run-together cities - Salt Lake City proper holds about 178,000; the Salt Lake Metropolitan Area is just over 1,000,000. Several cities extend up and down the Wasatch Front - making the Front's population about 2 million. The Valley's urban development grew rapidly in the last 50 years, with a substantial amount of sprawl and little agricultural land remaining. More farmland still exists in the counties north and south of Salt Lake County – these are areas with very high rates of urban development. Utah’s population growth rate is about double the nation’s, and the state is the fifth fastest-growing. One out of eight homes in Utah has been built since 2000. On the west side of the Valley, Kennecott Copper has a plan to develop its open lands into a string of walkable communities, called Sunrise, on a plot of land twice the size of San Francisco, growing to a population of 500,000 in 50 years.

PEAK OIL AND THE MORMONS

Salt Lake City is world headquarters of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints - within the city proper just less than half now calls itself Mormon – statewide the figure is about 62%. The Church is now embarking on a massive redevelopment project in downtown Salt Lake City's core, with mixed use (offices, mall shopping, residential, a grocery store). The Church has extensive corporate holdings, primarily in agribusiness, media, insurance, travel, and real estate. Here in Utah, the Church holds a tremendous amount of influence over local culture and public policy formation.

The Church could potentially be seen as an obstacle, or on the opposing side, of relocalization efforts – as it moves slowly in big decisions, avoids overtly political issues, etc. On the positive side, the Church has opposed local storage of nuclear waste; it has planned for disaster; it can mobilize members quickly; it cares about the poor; and was founded on principles of self-sufficient intentional community (even if it has substantially shifted away from this). Post Carbon Salt Lake could do outreach to environmentally-minded people, already receptive to relocalization concepts, but to ultimately have a broad impact, we may need to do serious outreach to the Church and/or its members. We would need to figure out the best way to do this, perhaps by exploring this with Mormons who become involved with our group, or are willing to dialogue with our group. It seems important for us to believe that the Church will eventually be swayable on these matters, especially if appealed to from certain angles. Seeing the Church as an obstacle to our efforts would not be a helpful perception. The “buy local” movement thinks campaigns in Utah, Maine, and Vermont have an advantage in the cohesive mind-sets of their constituents.

Historically, the Mormons' pioneer roots were a combination of self-sufficiency and communal interdependence within their tight-knit communities. Today, they extend aid (food, clothing, other help) to church members in need, operating perhaps the largest private welfare system in the nation. They are also encouraged to store a one or two-year supply of food for emergencies. Here in Salt Lake, the Church maintains a 19 million lb storage of wheat as a reserve, in case there is a time of need. In an emergency situation, their members can be quickly mobilized (as occurred in 1983, when Salt Lake's downtown flooded.) The “Latter Day Saints” believe we are approaching end times, a period marked by chaos and turmoil – culminating in the millennial rule of Jesus Christ – although they do not think these times are upon us yet, and choose not to dwell on this. Many Christian denominations believe that followers of Jesus will be raptured (taken up to heaven) as the end-times unfold; that they will be removed as things really start to unravel here on Earth. The Mormons believe they will be here through the whole thing along with everyone else, thus, their emphasis on preparedness for hard times. They also believe Christ will return to for a 1000 year rule on Earth, ruling from both Jerusalem, and also from “Zion” (in the U.S.). Many Mormons see U.S. politics as a stage on which the ultimate divine drama will be played out, with a Mormon (perhaps as president) will play a leading role.

Modern-day Mormons live the average American life in terms of materialism, consumption, and being pro-growth/development/capitalism - more so, if one considers their high birth rate. An integral part of their religious beliefs encourages them to have many children, thus Utah's high population growth rate (although members’ birth rates have been dropping in recent years.) Church members are encouraged to stay out of debt, yet Utah has one of the highest bankruptcy rates. Politically, Mormons are mostly conservative - Utah is one of the most Republican states in the nation. (One certainly hopes Peak Oil will become a bi-partisan issue - but it currently remains ignored by both parties.) Mormons mostly have control of the governorship, state legislature, and most federal representatives. The religion's organizational structure is a male-led hierarchy, and Mormons tend to trust authority. The Church President is seen as the modern-day prophet whose edicts are to be obeyed. A pre-election poll showed most Utahns highly supportive of the Iraq War and President Bush (around 60% for both). Mormons and Mormon leadership might resist facing any notion of resource depletion, since it comes head-to-head with their beliefs in having large families. Although the Church responded quickly in mobilizing members to respond to the 1983 flood in Salt Lake City, it usually changes slowly with deeper, fundamental issues. If Church hierarchy understood the implications of Peak Oil regarding the poor, and the possibility of resource wars, it might begin to exhort followers to conserve energy. These are all varying factors that may play a role in a Salt Lake and Utah Peak Oil future - in a city and state where Mormons play a prominent role in determining policy and formation of its communities. It is impossible to predict the Church’s response once the realities of Peak Oil become impossible to ignore.

ACTIVISM AND UTAH

In spite of the state-level Republican dominance, Salt Lake City itself has a fair number of progressive and environmentally-oriented people, and activists here tend to be rather outspoken. The city has one of the most progressive mayors in the nation, and he has taken substantial leadership on global warming issues. Our city’s initiatives regarding global warming have received international recognition. However, Peak Oil preparations must go much further than Climate Change Agreements, and must involve the community on a deeper level.

Another challenge our community may have in preparing for Peak Oil is “activism-fatigue.” Utah has faced many issues that have galvanized activists towards certain common causes and there are so many activist groups here already. This might mean activists have less energy for new, upcoming issues such as Peak Oil. On the other hand, it might mean that strong networks have been established that can be more quickly mobilized, and that a fair number of citizens have gained experiences relevant to this work.

Some of the many specific challenges that have mobilized activists in Salt Lake and Utah are: (1) the 1980’s battle against the MX missile system in the West desert, (2) up through 1992, working to stop nuclear testing in southern Nevada, which at times had repeatedly exposed Utahns to radioactive fallout, (3) in recent years, working to prevent storage of the nation’s highest-level nuclear waste 50 miles west of the city, and against expansion of lower-level radioactive waste storage even closer to Salt Lake, (4) battling for better regulations on a factory west of Salt Lake emitting the worst air pollution (of any one factory) in the nation, (5) the struggle to preserve wilderness in Utah’s red-rock country, (6) an effort to preserve wetlands from highway development, (7) working against the incineration of toxic nerve and chemical munitions at military facilities just west of the city, (8) preservation of our canyons (9) currently, the effort to stop the Divine Strake test.